Is Baseball Too Analytical?

By: Eli Forman, Eli Rotenberg

In 1977, Bill James, a security guard working for a pork-and-beans company, self-published The Bill James Baseball Abstract, where he introduced new statistics that fans, executives, and players had never seen before, later known as sabermetrics. Many of these stats are still used today—like Runs Created and Game Score - which measure a pitcher's performance on a 1-100 scale.

Other advanced stats that fans consider when evaluating a player’s performance include Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and On-base Plus Slugging (OPS). These stats delve deeper than just how often a player gets a hit, the number of runs they score, or simple counting stats. 

They attempt to provide an all-in-one measure of a player’s value, usually requiring formulas that try to account for a multitude of factors and weigh their importance. In doing so, these stats become tools people can use to evaluate players without having to consider other factors.

The issue with sabermetrics is that fans often judge player performance without considering basic statistics, such as batting average (AVG), runs (R), or runs batted in (RBI). However, the truth is that these stats show real in-game impact. 

A manager wants a good player because they will score runs, drive in runs, and get on base, and these are exactly the contributions that these stats show. They do this without attempting to be all-encompassing metrics, which are never perfectly balanced and sometimes fail to show the impact fans actually see.

An example of this is Rays shortstop Taylor Walls, who had a 2.4 WAR, the fourth-best on the team. One might think this shows he is a good hitter and helps the team offensively. In reality, most of his WAR comes from defensive performance, so it does not really show prowess at the plate, as some might have thought. 

Additionally, this year, Phillies southpaw Christopher Sánchez led all pitchers in WAR, which might lead fans to believe he is the best pitcher in the league. He was only seventh in strikeouts and not even top ten in wins. His high WAR mostly comes from the fact that he pitched a lot of innings and was consistent, but it doesn’t mean he was dominant or had overpowering stuff.

Looking at possibly the most used Sabermetric, OPS, can highlight some of the issues with advanced statistics. OPS is the combination of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. 

On-base percentage measures how often a player reaches base (hits, walks, HBPs) divided by total plate appearances (including walks, HBPs, and sacrifice flies). Slugging percentage is similar, but counts doubles twice, triples three times, and homers four times, only including hits. 

OPS adds these two stats together, valuing them equally, but in reality, OBP is much more important. Furthermore, slugging percentage inaccurately weighs extra-base hits; a triple is not three times as valuable as a single, but slugging percentage treats it as such.

Even with advanced metrics, basic stats like ERA, runs, RBIs, and batting average are still important in evaluating players. They reflect what actually happened on the field, showing the real contribution a player makes to his team. 

A pitcher with a low ERA has prevented runs, and a hitter with many RBI or runs scored has helped his team directly on the scoreboard. These stats also naturally account for game situations, like a player driving in a run when teammates are on base or scoring at important moments, which advanced stats often try to take out to just look at “skill”, while really clutchness is part of having skill.

Basic stats also have a long history, allowing fans to compare players from the past to current players and understand past players' stats without needing the complex stats that require calculations. Because they rely on actual outcomes rather than models or estimates, they can also provide a clearer picture of performance over small stretches of games. 

These advantages show why, even as sabermetrics have improved evaluation in many ways, traditional statistics remain important tools for understanding a player’s real impact.

No stat can show the whole picture of a player's performance, no matter how advanced. So, while baseball at this point is not too analytical, it will be if people lose sight of basic statistics and just look at stats like OPS, or even further advancements. 

It is risky to only use advanced stats without looking at basic stats, which show real on-field performance. And it is also risky not to watch games to see the actual performance and real context of the stats. Ultimately, sabermetrics are not a sufficient tool to be used by itself to evaluate a player; they must be used along with basic stats and also the in-game context.