World Cup Draw Analysis

By: Jacob Schmutter

As of Friday, December 5, 2025, all countries know which group they are in for the World Cup. All countries participating in the tournament have spent years preparing for this event, with a significant part of that preparation being the draw. 

The draw determines which teams compete against one another in group play, and the top two teams in each group move on to the elimination round. 

Every team hopes for an easy group to increase its chances of making it past the elimination round. The host nations, the USA, Mexico, and Canada, are automatically placed as part of what is called “Pot One.” Pot One consists of the best teams and the host nations.

I’ll be focusing on a few groups, mainly group D (USA), group I (France), group J (Argentina), and group L (England). Based on these matchups, this World Cup is expected to be highly competitive.

The USA can not be happier with their draw. I’m not saying it’s a free walk into the elimination rounds, but they are definitely the favorites. Paraguay and Australia are both capable of putting up a strong challenge. However, both teams are ranked significantly lower than the United States in the FIFA rankings, making the U.S. the clear favorite.

In group I, France, a top team in the world, definitely has the most talent, but underdogs such as Norway, led by Erling Haaland, along with Senegal featuring Sadio Mané, can certainly give France a tough match.

Group J has some very good countries, including Argentina and Austria as the top two teams. However, Argentina was the runner-up for the previous World Cup, so I’m confident that they will find their way back into the elimination round. The biggest question remains whether Lionel Messi will participate in the World Cup.

Group L will most likely receive the term “the group of death” - this term is given to the group with the toughest matches and best teams. While these matches might be very entertaining to watch, making it past the group stage will be difficult. 

This group involves top teams like England, a team led by many great players, including captain Harry Kane. They need to face teams such as Croatia and Panama, who are all highly ranked by FIFA, and can definitely put up a strong fight.

This World Cup, spanning across three host countries, will have the best of the best compete until there is only one winner. The draw plays a crucial role in how a country will do, whether they are facing tough contenders right away or easing themselves into play before easily qualifying for the elimination rounds. 

As the first match takes place on June 11th, 2026, years of preparation will finally be put to the test.